Market
Will legal challenges to Trump's gender definition order be filed by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
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No • 50%
Publicly available court records and news reports
Story
Trump Signs Order Defining Sex as Male and Female, Eliminates DEI Programs
Jan 20, 2025, 02:58 PM
On January 20, 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order establishing a federal policy that recognizes only two sexes, male and female, which are not changeable. The order defines a woman as an 'adult human female' and directs government agencies to eliminate diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs related to gender ideology. It rescinds previous gender policies, removes radical gender ideology guidance, communications, policies, and forms, and mandates that government identification documents, such as passports, reflect individuals' biological sex. Additionally, it ends the practice of housing biological men in women's prisons, prohibits taxpayer-funded gender transitions for prisoners, and prohibits forced recitation of preferred pronouns.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
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Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No major challenges • 33%
Some challenges • 33%
Major challenges • 34%
1-5 Challenges • 25%
No Challenges • 25%
6-10 Challenges • 25%
More than 10 Challenges • 25%
More than 5 Challenges • 25%
1-2 Challenges • 25%
No Challenges • 25%
3-5 Challenges • 25%
Fully overturned • 25%
Upheld • 25%
Partially overturned • 25%
Pending • 25%
