Market
Who will control major Syrian cities post-Assad ouster by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Controlled by Syrian government • 25%
Controlled by Turkish-backed forces • 25%
Controlled by Kurdish forces • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and conflict monitoring organizations
Story
Erdoğan Vows to Crush PKK, YPG, and ISIS in Syria Amid Political Shifts
Dec 20, 2024, 11:04 AM
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has declared that the time has come to neutralize terrorist organizations in Syria, emphasizing that this action is necessary to prevent threats from emerging south of Turkey's borders. Erdoğan specifically targeted the PKK and its affiliates, including the YPG, stating that their 'shelf life' has expired and that they are doomed to isolation with no future. He also mentioned that the heads of terrorist organizations such as ISIS and PKK-YPG will be crushed in the shortest time possible. Erdoğan's remarks come in the context of recent political shifts in Syria, following the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad, which has set the stage for intensified efforts against these groups.
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Equal control/shared control • 25%
Government retains control • 25%
International peacekeepers deployed • 25%
Rebels control major cities • 25%
Controlled by rebel groups • 25%
Other/Unclear control • 25%
Controlled by Kurdish forces • 25%
Controlled by Syrian government • 25%
Rebels control majority of major cities • 25%
No clear control in major cities • 25%
Control is evenly split • 25%
Government controls all major cities • 25%
Other • 25%
Pro-Turkey leadership • 25%
Pro-Iran/Russia leadership • 25%
Pro-Western leadership • 25%
Controlled by rebel groups • 25%
Mixed control • 25%
Controlled by foreign powers • 25%
Controlled by new Syrian government • 25%
Rebel control • 25%
No clear control • 25%
Joint control • 25%
Government control • 25%
A pro-Iranian leader • 25%
A Western-backed leader • 25%
A leader from the Syrian opposition • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased opposition control • 25%
Increased government control • 25%
Pro-Iranian leadership • 25%
No stable leadership • 25%
Independent leadership • 25%
Pro-Western leadership • 25%
A remnant of the Assad regime • 25%
Other • 25%
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham • 25%
A new coalition government • 25%
Pro-Russian leaders • 25%
Neutral leaders • 25%
Other • 25%
Pro-Western leaders • 25%
Another faction takes control • 25%
Syrian Government • 25%
FSA retains control • 25%
Syrian government regains control • 25%
Shared control • 25%
Other • 25%
International Forces • 25%
Rebel Groups • 25%
International Coalition • 25%
Other Rebel Group • 25%
HTS • 25%