Market
Which countries will be involved in resolving the Estlink 2 outage?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Finland and Estonia only • 25%
Finland, Estonia, and Russia • 25%
Finland, Estonia, and NATO • 25%
Other international coalition • 25%
Official statements from involved countries or international bodies
Story
Finland Probes Estlink 2 Cable Outage; Sabotage Not Ruled Out
Dec 25, 2024, 04:29 PM
Authorities in Finland are investigating an outage of the Estlink 2 undersea power cable connecting Finland and Estonia, which occurred on December 25 at 10:26 AM GMT. The disruption led to a reduction in transmission capacity from 1,016 MW to 358 MW between the two countries. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo confirmed that the cause of the outage is under investigation, and sabotage cannot be ruled out, according to the Finnish power grid operator Fingrid. Estonian grid operator Elering also stated that they are not excluding any possible causes. Similar incidents have previously occurred with undersea infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, including damage to the Balticconnector pipeline.
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Only Estonia • 25%
Neither • 25%
Only Finland • 25%
Both Finland and Estonia • 25%
Non-EU country • 25%
No external assistance • 25%
Estonia • 25%
Other EU country • 25%
Non-state actor • 25%
State actor • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Accidental cause • 25%
Replacement • 25%
Repair • 25%
Temporary Fix • 25%
Other • 25%
Russia • 25%
Other • 25%
No country held responsible • 25%
Another country • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No Country Blamed • 25%
Unknown/Other • 25%
Russia • 25%
Another Country • 25%
Closed without resolution • 25%
Ongoing investigation • 25%
Resolved without conviction • 25%
Resolved with conviction • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Other • 25%
Technical failure • 25%
Accidental damage • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Accidental damage • 25%
Sabotage confirmed • 25%
Technical failure • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Sabotage confirmed • 25%
Natural causes • 25%