Market
Which countries will be affected by the Estlink 2 outage by January 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Only Finland • 25%
Only Estonia • 25%
Both Finland and Estonia • 25%
Neither • 25%
Reports from Fingrid, Estonian transmission system operator, or relevant government agencies
Story
Finland Investigates Estlink 2 Power Link Outage on December 25, 2024; Capacity Dropped from 1,016 MW to 358 MW
Dec 25, 2024, 01:25 PM
The undersea power link Estlink 2, which connects Finland and Estonia, experienced a significant outage on December 25, 2024. The disruption occurred around 12:30 PM local time, with Fingrid, the Finnish transmission system operator, confirming that the link's capacity dropped from 1,016 megawatts (MW) to just 358 MW. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo stated that authorities are actively investigating the cause of the outage, and while they are looking into various possibilities, including potential vandalism, the interruption is not expected to impact electricity supply for Finnish consumers. The investigation continues as officials work to determine the exact circumstances surrounding the outage.
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Finland and Estonia only • 25%
Finland, Estonia, and NATO • 25%
Other international coalition • 25%
Finland, Estonia, and Russia • 25%
Significant increase (>10%) • 25%
Moderate increase (5-10%) • 25%
Minor increase (<5%) • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Intentional sabotage • 25%
Accidental damage • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Undetermined • 25%
Estonia • 25%
Other EU country • 25%
No external assistance • 25%
Non-EU country • 25%
Closed without resolution • 25%
Resolved with conviction • 25%
Ongoing investigation • 25%
Resolved without conviction • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Accidental damage • 25%
Sabotage confirmed • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Unknown/Other • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Technical failure • 25%
Natural causes • 25%