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What will be the status of Kurdish autonomy in Syria by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased autonomy • 25%
Maintained current autonomy • 25%
Reduced autonomy • 25%
No autonomy • 25%
Reports from international observers, the Syrian government, or Kurdish representatives
Story
Turkish FM Declares Imminent Eradication of Kurdish YPG in Syria, Rejects ISIS Pretext
Jan 6, 2025, 11:35 AM
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has declared that the eradication of the Kurdish YPG militia in Syria is imminent. He emphasized that the PKK must lay down its arms as soon as possible and that Ankara will not allow the PKK to gain strength under the pretext of fighting ISIS. Fidan stated that the PKK's empire of violence, built on exploiting the sentiments of Kurdish people, is on the verge of collapse. He also mentioned that Turkey will not agree to any policy that allows the YPG to maintain a presence in Syria.
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Significantly reduced • 25%
Maintained • 25%
Expanded • 25%
Other • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Disarmed but not integrated • 25%
Integrated into political system • 25%
Remain armed and independent • 25%
Controlled by Syrian government • 25%
Controlled by Turkey-backed forces • 25%
Controlled by YPG/DEAŞ forces • 25%
Remains contested • 25%
Increased • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
Significantly diminished • 25%
Moderately diminished • 25%
Decrease in activities • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase in activities • 25%
Disbanded • 25%
Still operational • 25%
Merged with Syrian government forces • 25%
Other status • 25%
Military rule • 25%
Other • 25%
Democratic government • 25%
Civil war continues • 25%
Loss of control • 25%
Stable control • 25%
Conflict escalation • 25%
Partial control • 25%
Increase in presence • 25%
No change • 25%
Minor reduction • 25%
Significant reduction • 25%
Government regains full control • 25%
Government loses control • 25%
Government retains partial control • 25%
Government control unchanged • 25%
Türkiye gains control • 25%
Joint control established • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
SDF retains control • 25%
Other leadership changes • 25%
Ahmed al-Sharaa remains leader • 25%
New democratic leadership • 25%
Military leadership • 25%