Market
What will be the resolution of TikTok's First Amendment argument by January 19, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
First Amendment upheld • 25%
First Amendment rejected • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Court rulings and official announcements from the U.S. Court of Appeals or Supreme Court
Story
TikTok Appeals U.S. Ban Effective January 19, 2025, as Trump Signals Support
Dec 9, 2024, 07:24 AM
On Friday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit upheld a law requiring TikTok's Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to sell the popular app or face a ban in the United States by January 19, 2025. TikTok, which has 170 million U.S. users, and ByteDance have filed an emergency motion seeking an injunction to block the law until their appeal can be heard by the Supreme Court. President-elect Donald Trump has indicated he may try to halt the ban and save the app. The legislation reflects bipartisan concerns in Congress over national security and data privacy. TikTok argues that the ban would violate the First Amendment and denies allegations of data misuse.
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Other legal outcome • 25%
First Amendment challenge succeeds • 25%
First Amendment challenge fails • 25%
Case dismissed on other grounds • 25%
Challenge unsuccessful, ban upheld • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial success, ban delayed • 25%
Challenge successful, ban overturned • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Ban delayed • 25%
Ban avoided through sale • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Settlement reached, operations continue • 25%
Appeal granted, no ban • 25%
Appeal denied, ban enforced • 25%
Other legal outcome • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Ban upheld • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Case ongoing • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Legal challenge ongoing • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Divestment completed • 25%
Ban blocked • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Sold to another entity • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Divestment proceeds • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Divestment postponed • 25%
Divestment blocked • 25%
TikTok wins the challenge • 25%
Case delayed past January 19, 2025 • 25%
TikTok loses the challenge • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%