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What will be the resolution of the conflict between Turkey and the SDF in northern Syria by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Continued military conflict • 25%
Ceasefire without formal agreement • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Official announcements and peace agreements reported by international news organizations
Story
Turkey Denies Ceasefire with SDF, Calls US Statement a 'Slip of the Tongue'
Dec 19, 2024, 09:19 AM
Turkey has denied any ceasefire agreement with the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northern Syria, contradicting a US announcement. A Turkish Defense Ministry official stated that Turkey does not negotiate with terrorist organizations and considered the US statement a 'slip of the tongue.' The official added that preparations and measures to fight terrorism will continue until the PKK/YPG lay down their arms and foreign fighters leave Syria. Turkey believes that Syria's new administration and the Syrian National Army, alongside the Syrian people, will liberate regions occupied by the PKK/YPG. The Turkish Defense Ministry emphasized that it will continue to take preventive and destructive measures against terrorist groups in Syria and cooperate with Syria's new administration in combating terrorism. Meanwhile, the SDF accused Turkey and Turkish-backed groups of not abiding by a decision to declare a ceasefire in Manbij and northern regions. The SDF announced that they will fight Turkey and its allied forces in Kobani, called on the people of Kobani to carry weapons, and emphasized the importance of stopping escalation, halting all military operations, and resolving all pending issues.
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SDF regains control • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Turkey gains control • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Military victory for Turkey • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Peaceful agreement reached • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Partial success with some areas controlled • 25%
Complete success with full control established • 25%
Failure with loss of territory • 25%
Ceasefire reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Continued military engagement • 25%
No agreement, continued tensions • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No Significant Outcome • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
New Peace Treaty • 25%
Military Withdrawal • 25%
Turkish military victory • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Kurdish forces maintain control • 25%
Other • 25%
Other • 25%
Russia • 25%
United States • 25%
United Nations • 25%
Withdrawal not completed • 25%
Agreement renegotiated • 25%
Full withdrawal completed • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
YPG relocated • 25%
YPG disbanded • 25%
YPG remains • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations with Syrian government • 25%
Increased tensions with Syrian government • 25%
Other • 25%
Consulate opened and diplomatic relations improved • 25%
Consulate not opened and relations worsen • 25%
Consulate not opened due to diplomatic issues • 25%
Consulate opened but relations remain tense • 25%