Market
What will be the primary outcome for over 1,000 migrants heading to El Paso by February 15, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successfully enter the US • 25%
Stopped by US authorities • 25%
Return to Mexico • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Reports from US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and major news outlets
Story
Over 1,000 Migrants Breach Mexican Blockade in Ciudad Juarez, Head Toward El Paso Border as Trump Deploys Resources
Jan 22, 2025, 01:58 AM
Over 1,000 migrants have breached a barricade set up by Mexican authorities and are now advancing toward the El Paso border. Reports indicate that the migrants forced their way through the blockade in Ciudad Juarez, with intentions of entering the United States. This surge is reportedly linked to the closure of the CBP One application, which may have prompted the mass movement. In response, President Trump is deploying protective resources to the southern border to manage the situation and prevent unauthorized entry.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Remain closed indefinitely • 25%
Reopen with new conditions • 25%
Reopen without conditions • 25%
Partial reopening • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Successful deportation of undocumented immigrants • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Raids postponed or cancelled • 25%
Raids blocked by local authorities • 25%
Increase • 25%
Significant decrease • 25%
Moderate decrease • 25%
No change • 25%
Other • 25%
Decreased illegal crossings • 25%
Increased border security • 25%
Legal challenges • 25%
Other response • 25%
Increased support • 25%
Decreased support • 25%
No change in support • 25%
10,001 to 15,000 • 25%
Less than 5,000 • 25%
More than 15,000 • 25%
5,000 to 10,000 • 25%
New initiatives launched • 25%
Majority located • 25%
Minority located • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
None located • 25%
Majority located • 25%
Some located • 25%
Few located • 25%
Inconclusive results • 25%
Significant decrease in illegal migration • 25%
Increase in illegal migration • 25%
No significant change in illegal migration • 25%