Market
What will be the primary method of resolution for the Gaza hostage crisis by January 20, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Diplomatic Negotiation • 25%
Military Intervention • 25%
Prisoner Exchange • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from credible news agencies or official statements
Story
Trump Threatens "All Hell to Pay" if Gaza Hostages Not Freed Before January 20, 2025
Dec 2, 2024, 07:05 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has issued a stern warning regarding the hostages held by Hamas in Gaza, stating that if they are not released before he takes office on January 20, 2025, there will be severe consequences in the Middle East. Trump emphasized that "there will be all hell to pay in the Middle East" if the hostages are not freed prior to his inauguration. He further declared that those responsible will be "hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied history of the United States of America." Describing the hostage situation as "violent" and "inhumane," Trump demanded, "Release the hostages now!" This message, referencing the hostages taken during the October 7 attacks, has drawn international attention.
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Some hostages released • 25%
Agreement reached but not implemented • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
No release • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Partial release • 25%
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Hostage situation unresolved • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
No agreement reached • 33%
Partial release of hostages • 34%
Hostages released • 33%
Increased diplomatic efforts • 25%
Military action in Gaza • 25%
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No significant action • 25%
Negotiations postponed • 25%
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Successful ceasefire and all hostages released • 25%
Partial agreement with some hostages released • 25%
Other • 25%
UN intervention • 25%
US-led coalition response • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Hostages remain but negotiations continue • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire without release • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Partial release • 25%
No release • 25%
Hostages not released • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Partial release • 25%
No hostages liberated • 25%
Unknown status • 25%
Some hostages liberated • 25%
All hostages liberated • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hostage deal reached • 25%
Hostages released without a formal deal • 25%