Market
Will there be an international diplomatic intervention in Gaza hostage situation by January 20, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from the United Nations or major international news outlets
Story
Trump Threatens "All Hell to Pay" if Gaza Hostages Not Freed Before January 20, 2025
Dec 2, 2024, 07:05 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has issued a stern warning regarding the hostages held by Hamas in Gaza, stating that if they are not released before he takes office on January 20, 2025, there will be severe consequences in the Middle East. Trump emphasized that "there will be all hell to pay in the Middle East" if the hostages are not freed prior to his inauguration. He further declared that those responsible will be "hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied history of the United States of America." Describing the hostage situation as "violent" and "inhumane," Trump demanded, "Release the hostages now!" This message, referencing the hostages taken during the October 7 attacks, has drawn international attention.
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No significant international response • 25%
Other • 25%
US-led coalition response • 25%
UN intervention • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Hostage situation unresolved • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Agreement reached but not implemented • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 34%
No agreement reached • 33%
Hostages released • 33%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Increased sanctions on Gaza • 25%
UN intervention • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Sanctions imposed on Hamas • 25%
Sanctions imposed on Israel • 25%
Peacekeeping forces deployed • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
UN sanctions imposed on Hamas • 25%
International peacekeeping force deployed • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Hostages remain but negotiations continue • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
Partial agreement with some hostages released • 25%
Successful ceasefire and all hostages released • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations postponed • 25%
No international intervention • 25%
UN-led intervention • 25%
NATO-led intervention • 25%
Other international intervention • 25%