Market
What will be the primary impact of 2024 temperature records on global climate agreements by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Strengthened Paris Agreement commitments • 25%
New international climate agreement • 25%
Increased funding for climate adaptation • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Outcomes from major climate summits or new international agreements
Story
2024 'Effectively Certain' to Be Hottest Year, Exceeding 1.5°C Limit, Says EU's Copernicus
Dec 9, 2024, 11:46 AM
European Union scientists have confirmed that 2024 is 'effectively certain' to be the warmest year on record, with global average temperatures surpassing 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for the first time. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), November 2024 was the second-warmest November globally, behind only November 2023. High temperatures are expected to persist into at least the early months of 2025, marking a significant milestone as the average annual temperature is anticipated to reach 1.6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This development exceeds the critical threshold set by the Paris Agreement to limit global warming and underscores the urgent need for ambitious climate action.
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Natural climate variability • 25%
Greenhouse gas emissions • 25%
Combined factors • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased fossil fuel production • 25%
Increased renewable energy investment • 25%
New climate initiatives • 25%
Significant flooding • 25%
Record heatwave • 25%
Major hurricane/typhoon • 25%
Severe drought • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Rollback of existing agreements • 25%
New international agreements • 25%
Increased climate funding • 25%
