Market
Will major climate action commitments be announced by March 2025 in response to 2024 temperature records?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Announcements from major international climate conferences or agreements
Story
2024 'Effectively Certain' to Be Hottest Year, Exceeding 1.5°C Limit, Says EU's Copernicus
Dec 9, 2024, 11:46 AM
European Union scientists have confirmed that 2024 is 'effectively certain' to be the warmest year on record, with global average temperatures surpassing 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for the first time. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), November 2024 was the second-warmest November globally, behind only November 2023. High temperatures are expected to persist into at least the early months of 2025, marking a significant milestone as the average annual temperature is anticipated to reach 1.6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This development exceeds the critical threshold set by the Paris Agreement to limit global warming and underscores the urgent need for ambitious climate action.
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Similar markets
No significant action • 25%
Rollback of existing agreements • 25%
New international agreements • 25%
Increased climate funding • 25%
