Market
What will be the outcome of trade negotiations between Canada and the U.S. if 25% tariffs are imposed by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Tariffs lifted • 25%
Tariffs reduced • 25%
Tariffs maintained • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Official announcements from Canadian or U.S. trade representatives
Story
Trudeau Vows 'Everything on the Table' Response if Trump Imposes 25% Tariffs on Canada
Jan 21, 2025, 04:01 PM
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has vowed a "robust, rapid, and very strong" response if U.S. President Donald Trump proceeds with imposing 25% tariffs on Canadian imports starting February 1. Trudeau stated, "If the President does choose to proceed with tariffs on Canada, Canada will respond, and everything is on the table." He supports the principle of dollar-for-dollar matching tariffs, acknowledging that such measures will cost Canadians but emphasizing the government's readiness to "support and compensate businesses" impacted. Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc noted that the government has prepared responses for various possible scenarios that have been under consideration for weeks.
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Other outcome • 25%
Temporary tariff suspension • 25%
Tariffs avoided with agreement • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Not implemented • 25%
Partially implemented • 25%
Implemented with full effect • 25%
Withdrawn • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Tariffs lifted • 25%
No change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Mutual agreement reached • 25%
U.S. imposes tariff • 25%
Canada agrees to new terms • 25%
Dispute unresolved • 25%
Tariffs delayed • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Tariffs averted through negotiation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Tariffs imposed by Canada only • 25%
Tariffs imposed by both • 25%
Tariffs imposed by U.S. only • 25%
No tariffs imposed • 25%
Ongoing dispute • 25%
Mutual agreement reached • 25%
Tariffs withdrawn • 25%
Tariffs implemented • 25%
Tariffs not implemented • 25%
Tariffs negotiated to a lower rate • 25%
Tariffs indefinitely postponed • 25%
Tariffs implemented • 25%
No agreement, tariffs implemented • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Moderate negative impact • 25%
Significant negative impact • 25%
Positive impact • 25%
Minimal impact • 25%
Negotiations stalled • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Successful agreement reached • 25%
No agreement, tariffs imposed • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Trade agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%