Market
What will be the outcome of US policy on Ukraine ATACMS missile usage by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Policy remains unchanged • 25%
Policy becomes more restrictive • 25%
Policy becomes more permissive • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official US government policy documents or press releases
Story
Trump Criticizes Biden's Approval of Ukraine's Use of US ATACMS Missiles to Strike Russia
Dec 12, 2024, 05:22 PM
Donald Trump, the designated US President, criticized the Biden administration's decision to allow Ukraine to use US-supplied ATACMS long-range missiles to strike deep into Russian territory. In an interview with Axios, he described this approval as 'foolish' and the 'most dangerous thing,' expressing concerns that it escalates the conflict and makes the war worse. Trump vehemently opposes sending missiles hundreds of miles into Russia, questioning, 'Why are we doing that?' and stating, 'It's crazy what's taking place.' Despite his criticisms, Trump vowed 'not to abandon' Ukraine but suggested the need for a policy change.
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Increased effectiveness with alternative strategies • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Decreased military effectiveness • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Significant impact on Russian military • 25%
Other • 25%
No noticeable impact • 25%
Minimal impact on Russian military • 25%
Continuation of current policy • 25%
Reversal of policy • 25%
Other • 25%
Modification of policy • 25%
Reduction in U.S. aid to Ukraine • 25%
Peace negotiations initiated • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
No significant change • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%