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What will be the outcome of US-HTS talks in Damascus by March 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Positive outcome with policy changes • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Official statements from the US State Department or credible news reports
Story
US Diplomat to Hold First Formal Talks with HTS Leader in Damascus
Dec 19, 2024, 07:36 PM
The United States is set to reengage diplomatically with Syria as Barbara Leaf, the State Department's top diplomat for the Middle East, plans to lead a delegation to Damascus in the coming days. This visit could mark the first formal U.S. contact with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Leaf is expected to meet with HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, who has a $10 million U.S. bounty on him. Discussions are anticipated to focus on Syria's political transition, addressing security concerns, and possibly reevaluating HTS's designation as a terrorist organization. European countries, such as Germany, have recently initiated dialogue with HTS representatives following a recent offensive by the group, signaling a shift in international relations with HTS.
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Release of U.S. citizens • 25%
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Political transition agreement • 25%
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US supports coalition government • 25%
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Formal alliance • 25%
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Full restoration with multiple countries • 25%
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Government forces regain control • 25%
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