Market
Outcome of U.S.-HTS negotiations by end of 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Formal agreement reached • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Negotiations end without agreement • 25%
No official statement • 25%
Official statements from the U.S. Department of State or credible media reports
Story
Blinken Says U.S. in Direct Contact with HTS, Terrorist-Listed Syrian Rebels Who Ousted Assad
Dec 14, 2024, 07:05 PM
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking at a news conference in Jordan, confirmed that American officials have been in direct contact with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist rebel group now in control of Syria after overthrowing President Bashar al-Assad's government. Blinken stated that the communications with HTS and other parties in Syria were aimed at discussing the case of missing American journalist Austin Tice and stressing U.S. principles for recognizing a future Syrian government. This marks the first time the United States has publicly acknowledged direct contact with HTS, which is designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. government. Blinken emphasized the importance of international unity in supporting a peaceful transition in Syria and urged HTS to respect human rights and reject extremism.
View original story
Similar markets
Retains terrorist designation • 25%
No change • 25%
Reclassified under different terms • 25%
Removed from terrorist list • 25%
No significant agreement • 25%
Both agreements • 25%
Release of U.S. citizens • 25%
Political transition agreement • 25%
Turkey • 25%
Qatar • 25%
Other countries • 25%
Russia • 25%
Reinstatement of bounty • 25%
No change in policy • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Formal alliance • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Other • 25%
Supportive response • 25%
Critical response • 25%
Political transition • 25%
Other focus • 25%
Humanitarian aid • 25%
Security concerns • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
Positive outcome with policy changes • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Removed as a terrorist organization • 25%
Remains as a terrorist organization • 25%
Re-designated with conditions • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Conditional engagement • 25%
Other policy changes • 25%
Continued isolation • 25%
Increased engagement • 25%
Maintains current status • 25%
Designated as terrorist by new entities • 25%
Recognized by additional countries • 25%
Recognized as legitimate by UN • 25%
Trade agreements reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
US withdraws from negotiations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
US supports HTS-led government • 25%
US supports coalition government • 25%