Market
What will be the outcome of the Uyghurs' hunger strike in Thailand by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Hunger strike ends with release • 25%
Hunger strike ends without release • 25%
Hunger strike continues • 25%
Hunger strike results in deportation • 25%
Reports from human rights organizations or credible news sources
Story
Thailand Urged Not to Deport 48 Uyghurs on Hunger Strike After 10 Years in Detention
Jan 19, 2025, 04:31 PM
Thailand is facing international pressure not to deport 48 Uyghur men who have been detained in the country for over a decade. The Uyghurs, who fled persecution in China, are at risk of enforced disappearance, long-term imprisonment, and torture if returned. Recent actions by Thai immigration officials, including the distribution of 'voluntary return' forms and photographing the detainees, have heightened fears of imminent deportation. The detainees have initiated a hunger strike to protest their potential forced return to China. Human Rights Watch has urged the Thai government, led by Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, to release the Uyghurs and allow them safe passage to a third country. The situation has drawn attention from global human rights organizations and U.S. lawmakers, who have called for Thailand to adhere to international law and humanitarian principles.
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Other outcome • 25%
Ends voluntarily • 25%
Ends due to medical intervention • 25%
Continues beyond March 31, 2025 • 25%
Released within Thailand • 25%
Remain detained • 25%
Deported to China • 25%
Relocated to third country • 25%
Situation unresolved • 25%
Deported to China • 25%
Resettled in a third country • 25%
Granted asylum in Thailand • 25%
Minor destabilization • 25%
No impact • 25%
Countered by Chinese government • 25%
Significant destabilization • 25%
Released without charge • 25%
Charged with complicity • 25%
Other legal outcome • 25%
Charged with negligence • 25%
United Nations • 25%
Amnesty International • 25%
Other • 25%
Human Rights Watch • 25%