Market
What will be the outcome of the Supreme Court case on ByteDance's divestment of TikTok by January 19, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Divestment Required • 25%
Divestment Not Required • 25%
Case Deferred • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Supreme Court ruling and official announcements
Story
Trump Backs TikTok as Supreme Court Hears Case on Jan. 10 Over ByteDance Divestment by Jan. 19
Jan 3, 2025, 09:51 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has expressed his support for TikTok, questioning the rationale behind banning the app given its popularity on his personal and campaign accounts. Trump's personal TikTok account has garnered 1.4 billion total views, averaging 24 million views per post, while his campaign account has received 2.4 billion total views, averaging 6 million views per post. The @teamtrump account on TikTok has received eight times more total views than on Instagram. This comes as the U.S. Department of Justice urged the Supreme Court to reject Trump's request to delay a law that would ban TikTok in the U.S. unless its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, divests by January 19. The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments on January 10 regarding the law, which TikTok argues violates free speech rights. The Biden administration opposes Trump's delay request, emphasizing national security concerns related to TikTok's Chinese ownership. If the ban is upheld, it could impact millions of small businesses and individual creators who use the platform, potentially shifting advertising dollars to competitors like Meta and Alphabet.
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Similar markets
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok wins • 25%
Government wins • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Uphold divestment law • 25%
Strike down divestment law • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Delay decision • 25%
TikTok ban overturned • 25%
Case postponed • 25%
TikTok ban upheld • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Ban overturned • 33%
Decision deferred • 34%
Decision postponed • 34%
Ban enforced • 33%
Ban upheld • 33%
Other • 25%
Delay granted • 25%
Compromise reached • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Case Dismissed • 25%
Appeal Granted • 25%
Appeal Denied • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
TikTok operational without changes • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
TikTok operational with restrictions • 25%
Remand to lower court • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Uphold divestiture order • 25%
Overturn divestiture order • 25%
Appeal upheld • 25%
No decision by deadline • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Appeal denied • 25%
TikTok loses the challenge • 25%
TikTok wins the challenge • 25%
Case delayed past January 19, 2025 • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Extension granted • 25%
Sold to a U.S. company • 25%
Sold to a non-U.S., non-Chinese company • 25%
No sale completed, TikTok banned • 25%
Overturn the law • 25%
Uphold the law • 25%
Delay enforcement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%