Market
What will be the outcome of the Russian investigation into the Ursa Major sinking by December 31, 2025?
2
Russian•Ursa Major•Mediterranean Sea•Russian Foreign Ministry•Cartagena•Murcia•Spain•Algeria•Oboronlogistika•Russian Ministry of Defense•US•Syria
Resolution / Starting Odds
Terrorist act confirmed • 25%
Accident confirmed • 25%
Sabotage by foreign entity • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Official reports from the Russian government or investigative bodies
Story
Russia Says 'Terrorist Act' Sank Ursa Major Cargo Ship; Two Crew Missing
Dec 25, 2024, 04:04 PM
A Russian cargo ship named Ursa Major sank in the Mediterranean Sea after an explosion, leaving two crew members missing, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry. Fourteen crew members were rescued and transported to the port of Cartagena, Murcia, Spain. The ship sank in international waters between Spain and Algeria on December 24th following an explosion in the engine room. Oboronlogistika, the state-owned company owned by the Russian Ministry of Defense, claimed that a 'terrorist act' caused the sinking, stating that three consecutive explosions occurred on the starboard side near the stern on December 23rd, causing a 25-degree list to starboard. The Ursa Major was reportedly on the US sanctions list and had been used to supply operations in Syria. Russian authorities have launched an investigation into the incident.
View original story
Similar markets
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Perpetrators identified and charged • 25%
Investigation closed without charges • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Deliberate provocation • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Technical malfunction • 25%
Unintentional miscommunication • 25%
No individuals identified • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Identified individuals but no legal action • 25%
Identified individuals and legal action taken • 25%
Severe weather conditions • 25%
Other • 25%
Human error • 25%
Structural failure • 25%
Human error • 25%
Structural failure • 25%
Other • 25%
Severe weather conditions • 25%
Some crew rescued, some missing • 25%
All crew rescued safely • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
All crew missing • 25%
Confirmed terrorist attack • 25%
Inconclusive findings • 25%
Accidental explosion • 25%
Sabotage by unknown actors • 25%
Confirmed espionage • 25%
Technical malfunction • 25%
Other • 25%
Accidental cable damage • 25%
Ukrainian forces found responsible • 25%
Other foreign actors found responsible • 25%
No conclusive findings • 25%
Russian internal actors found responsible • 25%