Market
What will be the outcome of the investigation into the Shunxin-39 incident by end of 2025?
2
Taiwan•Cameroonian•Keelung Harbor•Hong Kong•Chinese•Coast Guard Administration•CGA•Keelung•Chunghwa Telecom•South Korea•Busan•Taipei•Baltic Sea
Resolution / Starting Odds
Sabotage confirmed • 25%
Accidental damage • 25%
Inconclusive results • 25%
No damage found • 25%
Official investigation reports or statements from Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration
Story
Taiwan Accuses Chinese-Owned Shunxin-39, Registered Under Cameroonian Flag, of Sabotaging Undersea Cable
Jan 6, 2025, 03:23 AM
Taiwan has accused a Chinese-owned cargo vessel, the Shunxin-39, registered under the Cameroonian flag, of damaging an undersea cable near its northeastern coast on Friday. The incident, which occurred near Keelung Harbor, is suspected to be an act of sabotage. The vessel, owned by a Hong Kong-registered company with a director who is a Chinese citizen, was ordered by Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) to return to waters off Keelung port for investigation. The damaged cable, operated by Chunghwa Telecom, did not affect domestic communications due to the availability of backup equipment. Taiwan has sought assistance from South Korea in investigating the incident, as the Shunxin-39 is heading to Busan. The incident raises concerns about the vulnerability of Taipei's offshore communications infrastructure and follows similar incidents involving Chinese vessels in the Baltic Sea.
View original story
Similar markets
Resolved with South Korean assistance • 25%
Resolution involves multiple countries • 25%
Ongoing investigation • 25%
Resolved without international assistance • 25%
Other • 25%
Insufficient evidence • 25%
Accidental damage • 25%
Intentional sabotage • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Legal action in Taiwan • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Financial settlement • 25%
Intentional sabotage confirmed • 25%
Inconclusive results • 25%
No investigation results released • 25%
Accidental damage confirmed • 25%
Insufficient evidence • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Shunxin39 found responsible • 25%
Shunxin39 exonerated • 25%
Other countries • 25%
No other country • 25%
China • 25%
South Korea only • 25%
Route identified and closed • 25%
Partial route disruption • 25%
No significant findings • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Ongoing investigation • 25%
Formally charged • 25%
Investigation closed without charges • 25%
Inconclusive findings • 25%
Evidence confirmed suppressed • 25%
No suppression found • 25%
Investigation not completed • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
No official conclusion • 25%
Confirmed lab leak • 25%
Confirmed natural origin • 25%
Convicted with suspended sentence • 25%
Convicted and sentenced to prison • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%