Market
What will be the outcome of the investigation into the Butler assassination attempt by Dec 31, 2025?
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Donald Trump•Sean Curran•United States Secret Service•Curran•Trump•Ronald Rowe•Secret Service•Butler•Pennsylvania
Resolution / Starting Odds
Identified and arrested • 25%
Identified but not arrested • 25%
Not identified • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official reports or announcements from the FBI, Secret Service, or Department of Justice
Story
Trump to Appoint Sean Curran as New Secret Service Director Following Butler Assassination Attempt
Jan 17, 2025, 11:38 AM
President-elect Donald Trump is set to appoint Sean Curran, the head of his personal protective detail, as the new director of the United States Secret Service. Curran, who has been with Trump for many years and supervised about 85 agents, is expected to replace Ronald Rowe, the current acting director. This decision follows scrutiny of the Secret Service after an assassination attempt on Trump during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, 2024, where Trump was grazed in the ear. Curran was among the agents who shielded Trump during the incident. The move is seen as a response to the agency's handling of the assassination attempt and subsequent criticisms regarding security measures.
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Lone actor • 25%
Domestic group • 25%
Other • 25%
Foreign group • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other outcome • 25%
No perpetrator identified • 25%
Identified but not arrested perpetrator • 25%
Identified and arrested perpetrator • 25%
Case unresolved • 25%
Perpetrator convicted • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Perpetrator acquitted • 25%
No significant issues found • 25%
Other • 25%
Minor procedural errors • 25%
Significant procedural failures • 25%
Leadership changes recommended • 25%
Operational changes recommended • 25%
No significant changes recommended • 25%
Both leadership and operational changes recommended • 25%
Unresolved • 25%
Lone Actor • 25%
Domestic Group • 25%
Foreign Group • 25%
No wrongdoing found • 25%
New leads on shooter's motive • 25%
Other findings • 25%
FBI and DoJ found obstructing • 25%
Personnel Changes • 25%
Increased Funding • 25%
No Significant Changes • 25%
Security Policy Overhaul • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Determined as premeditated • 25%
Other • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Determined as spontaneous • 25%