Market
Will a formal investigation into the Butler incident be launched by June 30, 2025?
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Donald Trump•Sean Curran•Ronald Rowe•Curran•Trump•Butler•Pennsylvania•Secret Service•Butler incident•Kimberly Cheatle
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official government announcements or credible news sources
Story
Trump to Appoint Sean Curran as Secret Service Director Following Butler Incident
Jan 17, 2025, 08:45 AM
President-elect Donald Trump is set to announce Sean Curran as the new director of the U.S. Secret Service, replacing the acting director Ronald Rowe. Curran, who currently heads Trump's personal security detail and manages a team of 85 agents, was instrumental in protecting Trump during an assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania, in July 2024. This move comes after the Secret Service faced criticism for security lapses during the Butler incident, leading to the resignation of former director Kimberly Cheatle in July 2024. Curran's appointment is seen as a strategic choice to bring trust and new leadership to the agency, given his close relationship with Trump and his role in managing a team of 85 agents.
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Other • 25%
No significant issues found • 25%
Significant procedural failures • 25%
Minor procedural errors • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Identified and arrested • 25%
Identified but not arrested • 25%
Not identified • 25%
No significant findings • 25%
Personnel changes recommended • 25%
Procedural errors identified • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant changes recommended • 25%
Leadership changes recommended • 25%
Both leadership and operational changes recommended • 25%
Operational changes recommended • 25%
Some officers disciplined • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
All officers disciplined • 25%
All officers cleared • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Assailant linked to larger group • 25%
Confirmed assailant acted alone • 25%
Other • 25%
Assailant's motives remain unknown • 25%
Non-terror related • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Lone wolf terrorist act • 25%
Part of a larger plot • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
