Market
What will be the outcome of the investigation into the July 2024 assassination attempt on Trump by December 31, 2025?
2
Donald Trump•Sean Curran•Trump•Butler•Pennsylvania•Curran•Ronald Rowe•Kimberly Cheatle•Secret Service
Resolution / Starting Odds
Identified and arrested perpetrator • 25%
Identified but not arrested perpetrator • 25%
No perpetrator identified • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official investigation report or credible news reports
Story
Trump to Appoint Sean Curran, Head of Personal Security Detail, as New Secret Service Director After Assassination Attempt
Jan 17, 2025, 01:21 PM
President-elect Donald Trump is set to appoint Sean Curran, the head of his personal security detail and manager of a team of 85 agents, as the new director of the U.S. Secret Service. This decision follows scrutiny and pressure on the agency after an assassination attempt on Trump in July 2024 at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, where Trump's right ear was grazed by a bullet. Curran is expected to replace Ronald Rowe, who became the acting director after Kimberly Cheatle resigned. The Secret Service has been criticized for communication lapses and operational failures during the assassination attempt. Trump's choice of Curran, described as a 'great patriot' by Donald Trump Jr., aims to bring new leadership to address these issues and restore confidence in the agency's protective mission.
View original story
Similar markets
Case unresolved • 25%
Perpetrator convicted • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Perpetrator acquitted • 25%
Personnel Changes • 25%
Increased Funding • 25%
No Significant Changes • 25%
Security Policy Overhaul • 25%
No wrongdoing found • 25%
New leads on shooter's motive • 25%
Other findings • 25%
FBI and DoJ found obstructing • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Identified and arrested • 25%
Identified but not arrested • 25%
Not identified • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Lone actor • 25%
Domestic group • 25%
Other • 25%
Foreign group • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Bolsonaro found guilty • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Bolsonaro found not guilty • 25%
Acted alone • 25%
Other • 25%
Unknown • 25%
With accomplices • 25%
Investigation concluded with no charges • 25%
Investigation concluded with charges • 25%
No new investigation • 25%
Investigation initiated • 25%