Market
Will drone activity over German industrial sites be linked to a foreign government by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from German intelligence or international news agencies
Story
Unidentified Drones Over U.S. Ramstein Air Base and German Industrial Sites Prompt Investigation
Dec 13, 2024, 11:19 AM
Unidentified drones have been sighted over the U.S. Ramstein Air Base in Germany and other sensitive industrial locations, including Rheinmetall and BASF, in recent weeks, according to reports by Spiegel and other news outlets. The German authorities are investigating these sightings, with suspicions that the drones might be Russian reconnaissance drones. The Pentagon has also dismissed claims of an Iranian 'mothership' off the U.S. East Coast, clarifying that there is no evidence linking the drone activity to any foreign entity or adversary.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Inconclusive findings • 25%
Russian espionage confirmed • 25%
Other foreign espionage confirmed • 25%
Non-espionage related explanation • 25%
Increased military security • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Diplomatic action against Russia • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Origin remains unidentified • 25%
Origin confirmed but not Russian • 25%
No official conclusion • 25%
Russian origin confirmed • 25%
Foreign State Actor • 25%
Technical Malfunction • 25%
Private Entity • 25%
Other • 25%
Other country • 25%
Unidentified • 25%
Germany • 25%
Russia • 25%