Market
Outcome of Hostage Negotiations Between Israel and Hamas by March 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire with Hostage Release • 25%
Hostage Release without Ceasefire • 25%
No Agreement Reached • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Reputable news sources such as Reuters or BBC reporting on the outcome of the negotiations
Story
Hamas Approves Exchange of 34 Hostages, Demands Israeli Withdrawal; Israel Denies Agreement
Jan 5, 2025, 06:21 PM
Negotiations between Israel and Hamas over a potential ceasefire and hostage exchange have faced obstacles due to disagreements over the number and names of hostages to be released in the first round. Hamas had previously insisted that a ceasefire must precede any hostage list. On Sunday, a Hamas official told Reuters that the group has approved a list of 34 hostages presented by Israel to be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners as part of a ceasefire agreement. The official added that any agreement would depend on Israel withdrawing its forces from Gaza and agreeing to a permanent ceasefire. Israel denies receiving such approval, with an Israeli official stating that Hamas has not clarified how many of the hostages, estimated at around 100 including seven Americans, are alive. The negotiations are ongoing, with both sides yet to reach a definitive agreement.
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No deal reached • 25%
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