Market
What will be the outcome of the first major trade agreement by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased tariffs on China • 25%
Increased tariffs on EU • 25%
New trade deal with China • 25%
New trade deal with EU • 25%
Official announcements from the White House or the U.S. Trade Representative
Story
Trump Appoints Peter Navarro as Senior Counselor for Trade After Four-Month Prison Stint Related to January 6 Attack
Dec 4, 2024, 04:23 PM
President Donald Trump has appointed Peter Navarro as his Senior Counselor for Trade and Manufacturing in his second administration. Navarro, who previously served four months in prison for contempt of Congress related to the January 6 Capitol attack, is expected to play a key role in shaping the administration's trade policies. His return signals a strong commitment to implementing the steep tariffs that Trump promised during his campaign. This appointment may create tensions with Trump's nominee for commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, who is also set to lead the trade agenda. Navarro's previous disagreements with Trump regarding tariffs on steel and Chinese products have been noted, but he remains a prominent figure in Trump's trade strategy.
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Trade agreements reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No agreement, tariffs implemented • 25%
No changes • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Major restructuring • 25%
Minor adjustments • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
New energy trade deal • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
US imposes tariffs, no retaliation • 25%
US imposes tariffs, Canada retaliates • 25%
Tariffs not imposed, negotiations successful • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Trade agreement reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No amendments agreed • 25%
Major amendments agreed • 25%
Minor amendments agreed • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Tariffs increased • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
EU increases energy purchases • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Negotiations lead to compromise • 25%
U.S. imposes tariffs • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Focus on unrelated trade issues • 25%
Agreement on GM corn trade • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Disagreement on GM corn trade • 25%
