Market
How will Navarro influence the U.S.-China trade balance by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Trade deficit increases • 25%
Trade deficit decreases • 25%
Trade surplus achieved • 25%
No significant change • 25%
U.S. Census Bureau trade data reports
Story
Trump Appoints Peter Navarro as Senior Counselor for Trade After Four-Month Prison Stint Related to January 6 Attack
Dec 4, 2024, 04:23 PM
President Donald Trump has appointed Peter Navarro as his Senior Counselor for Trade and Manufacturing in his second administration. Navarro, who previously served four months in prison for contempt of Congress related to the January 6 Capitol attack, is expected to play a key role in shaping the administration's trade policies. His return signals a strong commitment to implementing the steep tariffs that Trump promised during his campaign. This appointment may create tensions with Trump's nominee for commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, who is also set to lead the trade agenda. Navarro's previous disagreements with Trump regarding tariffs on steel and Chinese products have been noted, but he remains a prominent figure in Trump's trade strategy.
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Manufacturing • 25%
Energy • 25%
Agriculture • 25%
Technology • 25%
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Other • 25%
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No significant change • 25%
Tariffs reduced • 25%
Trade agreement reached • 25%
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NAFTA/USMCA • 25%
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China Trade Deal • 25%
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New trade agreement • 25%
Increased tariffs • 25%
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New trade agreement • 25%
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