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What will be the outcome of the EU's demand for closure of Russian bases in Syria by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Bases closed and EU support granted • 25%
Bases remain, no EU support • 25%
Partial closure, partial support • 25%
No change in status • 25%
Official EU and Syrian government statements, verified by major news outlets
Story
Dutch Foreign Minister: EU Support for Damascus Hinges on Closure of Russian Bases
Dec 16, 2024, 12:54 PM
The Dutch Foreign Minister has stated that the closure of Russian military bases in Syria will be among the conditions set by the European Union for supporting the new government in Damascus. This condition is part of a broader European stance that also includes the demand for the departure of Russian military forces from Syria as a precondition for lifting EU sanctions against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a rebel group that has taken power in Damascus. The EU's position is seen as a response to the ongoing geopolitical dynamics in the region, particularly in light of recent developments involving Israel, Iran, and other regional players.
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Russia retains both bases • 25%
Russia loses both bases • 25%
Russia retains only Tartus • 25%
Russia retains only Hmeimim • 25%
Bases reduced • 25%
Bases completely withdrawn • 25%
Bases maintained at current levels • 25%
Bases expanded • 25%
Permanent presence • 25%
Other • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Temporary presence • 25%
Retention of only one base • 25%
Indefinite negotiations • 25%
Loss of both bases • 25%
Full retention of both bases • 25%
Russia retains only Khmeimim • 25%
Russia retains both bases • 25%
Russia loses both bases • 25%
Russia retains only Tartus • 25%
Operational and unchanged • 25%
Reduced operations • 25%
Closed • 25%
Expanded operations • 25%
Reduced • 25%
Expanded • 25%
Remain unchanged • 25%
Closed • 25%
Withdraw from both bases • 25%
Other • 25%
Maintain presence at both bases • 25%
Maintain presence at one base • 25%
Controlled by HTS • 25%
Controlled by Russia • 25%
Controlled by another entity • 25%
Joint control • 25%