Market
What will be the outcome of Russian military presence at Tartus and Khmeimim by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Maintain presence at both bases • 25%
Withdraw from both bases • 25%
Maintain presence at one base • 25%
Other • 25%
Official declarations from the Russian government or verified news sources
Story
Kremlin: No Final Decision on Tartus and Khmeimim Bases in Syria Post-Assad
Dec 16, 2024, 09:33 AM
The Kremlin has announced that no final decisions have been made regarding the future of Russian military bases in Syria, specifically the Tartus Naval Base and Khmeimim Air Base. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia is currently in dialogue with the forces controlling the situation in Syria following the unexpected downfall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and the future of the bases will be determined through this process.
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Maintained current presence • 25%
Unchanged presence • 25%
Reduced presence • 25%
Other • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Increased presence • 25%
Bases completely withdrawn • 25%
Bases maintained at current levels • 25%
Bases expanded • 25%
Bases reduced • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
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Maintained presence • 25%
Increased presence • 25%
Other • 25%
Permanent presence • 25%
Temporary presence • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
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Controlled by HTS • 25%
Joint control • 25%
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Closed • 25%
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Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Rebel victory • 25%
Government victory • 25%
Evacuated • 25%
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Under threat • 25%
Abandoned • 25%
Controlled by HTS • 25%
Controlled by other rebel groups • 25%
Controlled by Syria • 25%
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Stalemate • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
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Under Syrian control • 25%
Joint control • 25%
Abandoned • 25%
Under Russian control • 25%
Decrease • 50%
Increase • 50%