Market
What will be the outcome of the discussion to ban AfD by February 2024?
2
Alternative for Germany•AfD•Germany•Alice Weidel•Weidel•Ukraine•Kyiv•German•CDU•Marco Wanderwitz•Junge Alternative•JA
Resolution / Starting Odds
AfD is banned • 25%
JA is dissolved • 25%
Both AfD and JA are banned/dissolved • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Official announcements from the German government or Bundestag records
Story
Amid Ban Discussions, AfD Names Alice Weidel First Chancellor Candidate Ahead of February's Snap Election
Dec 7, 2024, 10:35 AM
Alternative for Germany (AfD), Germany's far-right party, has officially nominated its co-leader Alice Weidel as its first-ever candidate for Chancellor in the upcoming federal election scheduled for February's snap election. The decision marks a significant step for the party, which is currently polling second at 17%, trailing the CDU/CSU at 33%. Weidel, a 45-year-old business analyst and the first openly gay figure to lead the AfD, has been co-head of the party since 2017. She has expressed a desire for peace in Ukraine and an end to weapons supplies to Kyiv. The nomination comes amid discussions among more than 100 German MPs, led by CDU MP Marco Wanderwitz, about potentially banning the AfD due to concerns over its increasing radicalization and impact on democracy. Additionally, there are moves to dissolve the party's youth organization, Junge Alternative (JA).
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AfD becomes the largest party • 25%
AfD remains in opposition • 25%
AfD loses seats • 25%
AfD becomes the second largest party • 25%
AfD remains in opposition • 25%
AfD loses seats • 25%
AfD wins majority • 25%
AfD becomes part of a coalition government • 25%
AfD gains seats but not largest opposition • 25%
AfD becomes largest opposition party • 25%
AfD remains similar to current standing • 25%
AfD loses seats • 25%
AfD wins majority • 25%
AfD joins coalition government • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
AfD remains in opposition • 25%
Wins majority • 25%
Other • 25%
Remains in opposition • 25%
Forms coalition government • 25%
AfD not represented in Bundestag • 25%
AfD maintains its seats • 25%
AfD loses seats • 25%
AfD increases its seats • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
AfD remains in opposition • 25%
AfD forms coalition government • 25%
AfD joins coalition but not as leading party • 25%
No clear coalition involving AfD • 25%