Market
What will be the outcome of the 2025 NATO summit regarding U.S. membership?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Agreement on increased contributions • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
U.S. threatens withdrawal • 25%
NATO restructuring proposed • 25%
Official NATO summit reports or press releases
Story
Trump Warns NATO: Pay Up or U.S. Might Withdraw, NBC News Reports
Dec 8, 2024, 03:39 PM
Former President Donald Trump has issued a statement indicating that the United States' commitment to NATO hinges on member countries meeting their financial obligations. In an interview with NBC News, Trump emphasized that if NATO allies pay their bills, the U.S. would remain in the alliance. He stated, "If they pay their bills, absolutely," when asked about the U.S. staying in NATO. Trump's comments suggest a potential withdrawal from the alliance if he perceives it as being treated unfairly or if countries do not increase their contributions. This stance has raised concerns among allies about the future of U.S. involvement in NATO.
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Similar markets
US reduces involvement • 25%
US increases involvement • 25%
US remains in NATO • 25%
US withdraws from NATO • 25%
No change in support • 25%
Increased support for NATO • 25%
Decreased support for NATO • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Yes, without conditions • 25%
Yes, with conditions • 25%
No, postponed • 25%
No, not discussed • 25%
No official stance • 25%
Evenly split • 25%
Majority in favor • 25%
Majority against • 25%
Withdrawal from NATO • 25%
No change • 25%
Increased role • 25%
Decreased role • 25%
Ukraine offered a pathway to membership • 25%
No change in Ukraine's status • 25%
Ukraine admitted to NATO • 25%
NATO membership talks initiated • 25%
Calls for renegotiation • 25%
Strong condemnation • 25%
Minimal response • 25%
Other • 25%