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What will be the outcome of protests against Maduro by mid-2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Protests lead to policy changes • 25%
Protests lead to leadership change • 25%
Protests subside with no change • 25%
Protests escalate into conflict • 25%
News reports and official statements regarding the status and impact of protests
Story
Maduro Sworn In Amid Protests, Arrests; Opposition's González Urrutia Claims Presidency
Jan 10, 2025, 12:45 PM
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has been sworn in for a third term on January 10, 2025, amid protests from the opposition and allegations of electoral fraud in the July election. Thousands of opposition supporters have taken to the streets to protest against Maduro's inauguration, supporting opposition leader Edmundo González Urrutia, who claims he won the election and vows to return to Venezuela to take office. The inauguration at the National Assembly took place under heavy military and police presence, following a new wave of arrests of opposition figures. The international community has widely condemned Maduro's new term, with many countries refusing to recognize his presidency and not attending the ceremony. Meanwhile, some foreign leaders, such as Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel, have arrived in Venezuela to support Maduro's inauguration, which will extend his rule until 2031.
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Protests increase • 25%
Protests decrease • 25%
Protests remain steady • 25%
Protests end • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Protests result in significant international sanctions • 25%
Protests are suppressed without major outcomes • 25%
Protests lead to policy changes • 25%
Minor clashes, no major incidents • 25%
Peaceful with no incidents • 25%
Major violence with fatalities • 25%
Significant clashes with injuries • 25%
Other significant outcome • 25%
Protests dissipate without significant change • 25%
Protests lead to increased government crackdown • 25%
Protests lead to negotiations • 25%
Protests remain the same • 25%
Protests decrease • 25%
Protests end completely • 25%
Protests increase • 25%
Protests escalate into violence • 25%
Protests subside with Maduro in power • 25%
Protests subside with González in power • 25%
Protests lead to negotiations • 25%
Maduro remains in power • 25%
New elections announced • 25%
Opposition gains significant political concessions • 25%
Other • 25%
Maduro ousted through internal uprising • 25%
Maduro ousted through international intervention • 25%
Other • 25%
Maduro remains in power • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase in government concessions • 25%
Government crackdown • 25%
Intensification of protests • 25%
Power-sharing agreement • 25%
Edmundo González becomes president • 25%
Nicolás Maduro remains president • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New elections held • 25%
Power-sharing agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Maduro remains in power • 25%