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What will be the outcome of North Korean troop involvement in Ukraine by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant strategic advantage for Russia • 25%
Minimal impact on conflict • 25%
Increased tensions with other nations • 25%
Withdrawal of North Korean troops • 25%
Reports from international military analysts, official military statements
Story
Russia Deploys 11,000 North Korean Troops in Kursk Assaults, Zelensky Says
Dec 14, 2024, 09:35 PM
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russia has begun deploying North Korean soldiers in significant numbers, estimated at around 11,000 troops, to participate in military operations in Russia's Kursk region. According to Zelensky, these North Korean troops are being integrated into Russian units and used in assaults against Ukrainian positions. He stated that 'Moscow has dragged another state into this war,' emphasizing the escalation of the conflict. He indicated that while they are currently operating in the Kursk region, they may soon be deployed to other fronts. Ukrainian military intelligence also reported that North Korean soldiers have suffered noticeable losses, estimating around 200 casualties. Additionally, there have been reports of friendly fire incidents due to language barriers, including an incident where eight members of the Chechen Akhmat unit were killed by North Korean soldiers.
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Other • 25%
Withdrawal of troops • 25%
Increased troop deployment • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
North Korea withdraws troops • 25%
Increased military support • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
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Other • 25%
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Significant North Korean losses • 25%
Stalemate with Ukrainian forces • 25%
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No change in involvement • 25%
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No change in involvement • 25%
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Other • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
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Other • 25%
Increased troop deployment • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Withdrawal of North Korean troops • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Peace agreement involving North Korea • 25%
Withdrawal due to international pressure • 25%
Significant territorial gain • 25%
High casualties with minimal gain • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
UN sanctions • 25%
EU sanctions • 25%
No incident • 25%
US sanctions • 25%
Increased troop deployment • 25%
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Diplomatic resolution • 25%
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Military aid to Ukraine • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
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