Market
What will be the outcome of military personnel advocacy for Afghan refugees by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Policy reversal • 25%
Compromise measures • 25%
No change • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Reports from advocacy groups or official military statements
Story
Trump Cancels Flights for 1,660 Afghan Refugees Amid Immigration Crackdown
Jan 20, 2025, 10:18 PM
The Trump administration has canceled flights for nearly 1,660 Afghan refugees who were cleared by the U.S. government to resettle in the United States, following President Donald Trump's order to suspend U.S. refugee programs. This group includes family members of active-duty U.S. military personnel and former Afghan soldiers at risk of Taliban retribution. The cancellations are part of Trump's broader immigration crackdown, leaving thousands of other approved Afghan refugees in limbo, awaiting flights from Afghanistan or Pakistan. The decision reflects Trump's campaign promise to restrict immigration, casting uncertainty over the future of U.S. refugee programs.
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All reinstated with full back pay • 25%
None reinstated • 25%
Reinstated without back pay • 25%
Some reinstated with partial back pay • 25%
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Increased troop presence • 25%
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Granted asylum elsewhere • 25%
Reintegrated into Syrian military • 25%
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