Market
How many Afghan refugees will be resettled in the U.S. by end of 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 1,000 • 25%
1,000 to 2,000 • 25%
2,001 to 3,000 • 25%
More than 3,000 • 25%
Reports from the U.S. Department of State or Refugee Resettlement agencies
Story
Trump Cancels Flights for 1,660 Afghan Refugees Amid Immigration Crackdown
Jan 20, 2025, 10:18 PM
The Trump administration has canceled flights for nearly 1,660 Afghan refugees who were cleared by the U.S. government to resettle in the United States, following President Donald Trump's order to suspend U.S. refugee programs. This group includes family members of active-duty U.S. military personnel and former Afghan soldiers at risk of Taliban retribution. The cancellations are part of Trump's broader immigration crackdown, leaving thousands of other approved Afghan refugees in limbo, awaiting flights from Afghanistan or Pakistan. The decision reflects Trump's campaign promise to restrict immigration, casting uncertainty over the future of U.S. refugee programs.
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Similar markets
500 to 1,000 • 25%
More than 1,500 • 25%
1,001 to 1,500 • 25%
Less than 500 • 25%
Resume with modifications • 25%
Terminate program • 25%
Extend suspension • 25%
Resume as before • 25%
Decrease in Return Rates • 25%
No Change in Return Rates • 25%
Moderate Increase in Returns • 25%
Significant Increase in Returns • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Stricter refugee admission policies • 25%
More lenient refugee admission policies • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Unclear Outcome • 25%
Significant Reduction • 25%
Increased Refugee Numbers • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%