Market
Will the U.S. resume Afghan refugee flights by June 30, 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the U.S. Department of State or Homeland Security
Story
Trump Cancels Flights for 1,660 Afghan Refugees Amid Immigration Crackdown
Jan 20, 2025, 10:18 PM
The Trump administration has canceled flights for nearly 1,660 Afghan refugees who were cleared by the U.S. government to resettle in the United States, following President Donald Trump's order to suspend U.S. refugee programs. This group includes family members of active-duty U.S. military personnel and former Afghan soldiers at risk of Taliban retribution. The cancellations are part of Trump's broader immigration crackdown, leaving thousands of other approved Afghan refugees in limbo, awaiting flights from Afghanistan or Pakistan. The decision reflects Trump's campaign promise to restrict immigration, casting uncertainty over the future of U.S. refugee programs.
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Similar markets
500 to 1,000 • 25%
Less than 500 • 25%
1,001 to 1,500 • 25%
More than 1,500 • 25%
Extend suspension • 25%
Terminate program • 25%
Resume with modifications • 25%
Resume as before • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased troop presence • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Enhanced evacuation protocols • 25%
Other changes • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
