Market
What will be the outcome of François Bayrou's political consultations by February 28, 2025?
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Emmanuel Macron•François Bayrou•Bayrou•Macron•Michel Barnier•National Assembly•Gérard Larcher•Senate•Marine Le Pen•Jordan Bardella•France
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful coalition formed • 25%
Partial agreements reached • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Consultations lead to political instability • 25%
Official announcements from the French government or credible news outlets
Story
Macron Appoints François Bayrou as Prime Minister to Navigate 2025 Budget as France's Fourth Leader This Year
Dec 15, 2024, 12:34 PM
French President Emmanuel Macron has appointed François Bayrou as the new Prime Minister, marking the fourth individual to hold the position this year. Bayrou, a veteran centrist politician and longtime ally of Macron, is tasked with forming a new government amid a politically fractured parliament. His predecessor, Michel Barnier, resigned earlier this month, leaving Bayrou to navigate the complexities of governance without a clear majority. As part of his initial actions, Bayrou has begun consultations with key political figures, including Yaël Braun-Pivet, the President of the National Assembly, and Gérard Larcher, the President of the Senate. He is also set to meet with far-right leaders Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella on Monday, as he seeks to build a coalition capable of passing the 2025 budget, a significant challenge given the current political climate. Bayrou has expressed intentions to create a compact government featuring experienced personalities, aiming to stabilize France’s political landscape after months of turmoil.
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Successfully forms government • 25%
Fails to form government • 25%
Forms minority government • 25%
Resigns before forming government • 25%
Other • 25%
Successfully forms a government • 25%
Fails to form a government • 25%
Forms a coalition government • 25%
Successful formation • 25%
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Other • 25%
Resigns or replaced • 25%
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Ousted • 25%
Still Prime Minister • 25%
Significant reshuffle • 25%
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New Prime Minister appointed • 25%
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Economic crisis • 25%
Other • 25%
Political opposition • 25%