Market
What will be François Bayrou's political role by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Still Prime Minister • 25%
Resigned • 25%
Ousted • 25%
Other role • 25%
Official announcements or major news outlets
Story
Macron Appoints Veteran Ally François Bayrou as Prime Minister to Form New Government
Dec 13, 2024, 11:46 AM
French President Emmanuel Macron has appointed François Bayrou as the new Prime Minister of France. Bayrou, a 73-year-old veteran centrist politician and historical ally of Macron, is the leader of the Democratic Movement (MoDem) party. He currently serves as the mayor of Pau and the High Commissioner of Planning. Bayrou is tasked with forming a new government and drafting the budget for 2025, following the collapse of Michel Barnier's administration after a successful vote of no confidence in parliament a week ago. The appointment aims to navigate France through the current political uncertainty.
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Resigns or replaced • 25%
Successfully stabilizes • 25%
Partially stabilizes • 25%
Fails to stabilize • 25%
New Prime Minister appointed • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
Stable government • 25%
Significant reshuffle • 25%
Consultations lead to political instability • 25%
Successful coalition formed • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Partial agreements reached • 25%
Broad coalition across political spectrum • 25%
Predominantly centrist • 25%
Mix of centrist and left-wing • 25%
Mix of centrist and right-wing • 25%
Political opposition • 25%
Economic crisis • 25%
Social unrest • 25%
Other • 25%
Forms a coalition government • 25%
Fails to form a government • 25%
Successfully forms a government • 25%
Other • 25%