Market
Will François Bayrou form a new French government by March 31, 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcement from the French government or reputable news sources such as Le Monde or BBC
Story
Macron Names François Bayrou Prime Minister Following Government Collapse
Dec 13, 2024, 11:51 AM
On December 13, 2024, French President Emmanuel Macron appointed 73-year-old centrist politician François Bayrou as the new Prime Minister of France. Bayrou, the mayor of Pau and leader of the Democratic Movement (MoDem), replaces Michel Barnier, who resigned after a no-confidence vote by far-right and leftist lawmakers that toppled the government. Bayrou is tasked with forming a new government and drafting a new budget for 2025, aiming to stabilize the political landscape and secure support for the government's agenda.
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Successfully forms government • 25%
Forms minority government • 25%
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Fails to form government • 25%
Mix of centrist and left-wing • 25%
Predominantly centrist • 25%
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Mix of centrist and right-wing • 25%
Partial formation • 25%
Successful formation • 25%
Other • 25%
Failure to form • 25%
