Market
What will be the outcome of François Bayrou's attempt to form a new French government by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successfully forms government • 25%
Fails to form government • 25%
Forms minority government • 25%
Resigns before forming government • 25%
Official announcement from the French government or major news outlets
Story
Macron Appoints Veteran Ally François Bayrou as Prime Minister to Form New Government
Dec 13, 2024, 11:46 AM
French President Emmanuel Macron has appointed François Bayrou as the new Prime Minister of France. Bayrou, a 73-year-old veteran centrist politician and historical ally of Macron, is the leader of the Democratic Movement (MoDem) party. He currently serves as the mayor of Pau and the High Commissioner of Planning. Bayrou is tasked with forming a new government and drafting the budget for 2025, following the collapse of Michel Barnier's administration after a successful vote of no confidence in parliament a week ago. The appointment aims to navigate France through the current political uncertainty.
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Successfully forms a government • 25%
Fails to form a government • 25%
Forms a coalition government • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful formation • 25%
Other • 25%
Failure to form • 25%
Partial formation • 25%
Successfully stabilizes • 25%
Resigns or replaced • 25%
Fails to stabilize • 25%
Partially stabilizes • 25%
Consultations lead to political instability • 25%
Partial agreements reached • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Successful coalition formed • 25%
Mix of centrist and right-wing • 25%
Broad coalition across political spectrum • 25%
Predominantly centrist • 25%
Mix of centrist and left-wing • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
New Prime Minister appointed • 25%
Significant reshuffle • 25%
Stable government • 25%
Budget adoption • 25%
Economic policy • 25%
Social unrest • 25%
Other political issues • 25%