Market
What will be the outcome for North Korean soldiers in Ukraine by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Majority withdrawn • 25%
Majority remain • 25%
Majority captured • 25%
Majority casualties • 25%
Credible news reports and official statements from involved parties
Story
Over 3,000 North Korean Soldiers Killed or Wounded in Ukraine, Some Choosing Suicide Over Capture
Dec 30, 2024, 09:50 AM
North Korean soldiers deployed to Russia's Kursk region to fight alongside Russian forces in Ukraine are experiencing significant casualties, with over 3,000 reported killed or wounded. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that these soldiers, numbering around 12,000, are being sent into battle with minimal protection, resulting in high losses. The White House has confirmed that in the last week alone, approximately 1,000 North Korean troops were killed or injured in Kursk during human wave attacks. Reports also indicate that some North Korean soldiers are choosing suicide over capture by Ukrainian forces, driven by fears of reprisals against their families back home. This situation underscores the severe conditions and the human cost of the ongoing conflict.
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Remain in Ukraine • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Returned to North Korea without exchange • 25%
Exchanged for Ukrainian soldiers • 25%
Held as prisoners of war • 25%
Granted asylum in Ukraine • 25%
Other • 25%
Returned to North Korea • 25%
Unknown outcome • 25%
Transferred to a third country • 25%
Returned to North Korea • 25%
Retained in Ukraine • 25%
Returned to North Korea • 25%
Retained as POWs • 25%
Other • 25%
Tried in Ukraine • 25%
Significant North Korean losses • 25%
Stalemate with Ukrainian forces • 25%
North Korea achieves military objectives • 25%
Withdrawal without significant impact • 25%
Transferred to a third country • 25%
Returned to North Korea • 25%
Granted asylum in Ukraine • 25%
Held as prisoner of war • 25%
Denial of official orders • 25%
Confirmation of North Korean military orders • 25%
Evidence of voluntary participation • 25%
No conclusive evidence • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Withdrawal of North Korean troops • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Peace agreement involving North Korea • 25%
Stalemate with current forces • 25%
Other • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Increased troop deployment • 25%
No change in involvement • 25%
Increased involvement • 25%
Decreased involvement • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Other actions • 25%
UN sanctions on North Korea • 25%
Increased diplomatic pressure on North Korea • 25%