Market
What will be the outcome for captured North Korean soldiers in Ukraine by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Exchanged for Ukrainian soldiers • 25%
Returned to North Korea without exchange • 25%
Remain in Ukraine • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from Ukrainian or North Korean governments, or verified news reports
Story
Zelensky Proposes Exchange of Captured North Korean Soldiers for Ukrainians Held by Russia
Jan 12, 2025, 06:57 PM
On Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine is prepared to return captured North Korean soldiers to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in exchange for Ukrainian soldiers held captive in Russia. Zelensky shared footage of the first interrogations of the North Korean soldiers, who were reportedly the first of their kind captured by Ukrainian forces in Russia's Kursk region. He stated, "Ukraine is ready to hand over Kim Jong Un's soldiers to him if he can organize their exchange for our warriors who are being held captive in Russia." For those North Korean soldiers who do not wish to return, Zelensky indicated that alternative arrangements could be made.
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Held as prisoners of war • 25%
Granted asylum in Ukraine • 25%
Returned to North Korea • 25%
Other • 25%
Unknown outcome • 25%
Transferred to a third country • 25%
Retained in Ukraine • 25%
Returned to North Korea • 25%
Other • 25%
Returned to North Korea • 25%
Retained as POWs • 25%
Tried in Ukraine • 25%
Majority remain • 25%
Majority captured • 25%
Majority casualties • 25%
Majority withdrawn • 25%
Returned to North Korea • 25%
Transferred to a third country • 25%
Held as prisoner of war • 25%
Granted asylum in Ukraine • 25%
Soldiers returned to North Korea • 25%
Soldiers remain detained in Ukraine • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Soldiers granted asylum in a third country • 25%
Other • 25%
Defected to South Korea • 25%
Returned to North Korea • 25%
Remained in Ukraine • 25%
Confirmation of North Korean military orders • 25%
No conclusive evidence • 25%
Denial of official orders • 25%
Evidence of voluntary participation • 25%
Diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
UN resolution or statement • 25%
Sanctions against North Korea • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Demand immediate return • 25%
Other • 25%
Negotiate exchange • 25%
No official response • 25%
Other • 25%
Exchange for Ukrainian POWs • 25%
Returned without exchange • 25%
Remain in Ukraine • 25%