Market
What will be the nature of the first significant diplomatic interaction between Israel and the new Syrian government by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Trade agreement • 25%
Security cooperation • 25%
Border dispute resolution • 25%
Humanitarian aid • 25%
Diplomatic announcements or credible news reports
Story
Israel Warns Syria of Forceful Response if Iran Returns or Hezbollah Arms
Dec 10, 2024, 03:02 PM
Israel has issued a stern warning to the new Syrian regime, stating that it will act decisively to protect its security if the new government allows Iran to re-establish its presence in Syria or acts against Israel. This statement was made by a senior Israeli official, who emphasized that Israel does not wish to interfere in Syria's internal affairs but will respond forcefully to any threats. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated this position, highlighting Israel's intention to establish relations with the new Syrian leadership but warning of a strong response should Iran return or if weapons are transferred to Hezbollah. The Israeli stance comes amidst hopes that the new regime will focus on the welfare of the Syrian people and restore ties with the Arab world, while maintaining security in the Golan Heights.
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Increased tensions • 25%
Other diplomatic outcomes • 25%
Peace talks initiated • 25%
No progress • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Relations remain the same • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
Informal relations improved • 25%
Formal diplomatic relations established • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Establishment of relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Other • 25%
Security cooperation • 25%
Trade agreements • 25%
Humanitarian aid • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Agreement on security issues • 25%
Disagreement on key issues • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Other • 25%
Hostile • 25%
No clear stance • 25%
Friendly • 25%
Neutral • 25%
No official stance taken • 25%
Improved relations with Israel • 25%
Neutral stance maintained • 25%
Increased hostility towards Israel • 25%
Diplomatic relations established • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased tensions or conflict • 25%
Continued non-engagement • 25%