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What will be the impact of the alleged capture of a North Korean soldier on the Ukraine-Russia conflict by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased tensions • 25%
Diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Reports from international conflict monitoring organizations or diplomatic sources
Story
Ukraine Claims First Capture of North Korean Soldier, Including Photo and Armored Personnel Carrier in Kursk Region
Dec 26, 2024, 09:18 PM
Ukrainian Armed Forces have claimed to capture a North Korean soldier in the Kursk region, marking what they assert is the first instance of such a capture. Reports indicate that the soldier was taken during a military operation aimed at enemy forces. Various sources have circulated a photo purportedly showing the captured soldier, although the authenticity of the image has been questioned. The operation reportedly yielded additional trophies, including an armored personnel carrier. While the claims have not been officially confirmed, they represent a notable development in the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
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Diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
UN resolution or statement • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Sanctions against North Korea • 25%
North Korea achieves military objectives • 25%
Withdrawal without significant impact • 25%
Significant North Korean losses • 25%
Stalemate with Ukrainian forces • 25%
Granted asylum in Ukraine • 25%
Held as prisoner of war • 25%
Transferred to a third country • 25%
Returned to North Korea • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
No significant reaction • 25%
Support for North Korea • 25%
Condemnation by major countries • 25%
Increased involvement • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
No change in involvement • 25%
Decreased involvement • 25%
Diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Sanctions against North Korea • 25%
Condemnation without action • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Demand immediate return • 25%
Negotiate exchange • 25%
No official response • 25%
Other • 25%
Military aid to Ukraine • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Increased diplomatic pressure on North Korea • 25%
UN sanctions on North Korea • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Returned to North Korea without exchange • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Exchanged for Ukrainian soldiers • 25%
Remain in Ukraine • 25%
Majority captured • 25%
Majority casualties • 25%
Majority withdrawn • 25%
Majority remain • 25%