Market
Outcome of General Kirillov assassination investigation by December 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Multiple arrests and convictions • 25%
Investigation concludes without further arrests • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) or Russian government press releases
Story
Russia Arrests Uzbek Suspect Recruited by Ukraine in General Kirillov's Moscow Assassination
Dec 18, 2024, 07:15 AM
Russian authorities have detained two suspects in connection with the assassination of Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, the head of Russia's Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Defense Forces, and his aide. General Kirillov and his aide were killed in a bombing in Moscow on Tuesday. One of the suspects is a 29-year-old Uzbek citizen, born in 1995, who allegedly confessed to being recruited by Ukrainian intelligence services to carry out the attack. He admitted to arriving in Moscow on a mission, purchasing a scooter, and later acquiring materials for the bomb. The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) announced the arrests and is continuing the investigation to determine the involvement of other individuals in the terrorist act.
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Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Internal security breach identified • 25%
Ukraine officially blamed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Involvement of other foreign entities • 25%
Ukrainian involvement confirmed • 25%
Unsolved • 25%
Act of domestic terrorism • 25%
Terrorism • 25%
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Personal Dispute • 25%
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Ukraine • 25%
No official blame assigned • 25%
Foreign Intelligence Agency • 25%
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Ukraine • 25%
No official blame assigned • 25%
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SBU not implicated • 25%
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Russian dissidents • 25%
No clear identification • 25%
A third-party group • 25%
Ukrainian GUR • 25%
Case still pending • 25%
Acquittal • 25%
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Conviction on terrorism charges • 25%
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Guilty • 25%
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