Market
What international diplomatic actions will occur regarding Bolsonaro by end of 2025?
2
Brazilian•Jair Bolsonaro•Donald Trump•Alexandre de Moraes•Bolsonaro•United States•Brasília•Michelle Bolsonaro•Trump•Brazil
Resolution / Starting Odds
US intervention • 25%
Brazilian diplomatic efforts • 25%
No international action • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from involved countries or international organizations
Story
Bolsonaro Unable to Attend Trump's Inauguration, Wife Represents Him Amid Political Persecution Claims
Jan 18, 2025, 01:20 PM
Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro was unable to attend the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday, due to a decision by Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who denied Bolsonaro's request to travel to the United States. Bolsonaro's passport has been retained since February 2024 amid investigations into an alleged coup attempt. At Brasília airport, Bolsonaro accompanied his wife, Michelle Bolsonaro, who traveled to the U.S. to represent him at the ceremony. Bolsonaro expressed hope that Trump could help reverse his ineligibility to run for office in Brazil, though he did not specify how this might be achieved. He also mentioned feeling 'chateado' (upset) and 'abalado' (shaken) by the political persecution he believes he is facing. Michelle Bolsonaro, before departing, stated that adversaries are afraid of her husband and expressed hope that God would have mercy on Brazil.
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Similar markets
International condemnation • 25%
UN sanctions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Diplomatic actions • 25%
Convicted • 25%
Charged but not convicted • 25%
Exonerated • 25%
Ongoing investigation • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Imprisonment • 25%
Continued political career • 25%
Exile • 25%
Exoneration • 25%
Approved • 33%
Denied • 33%
Pending • 34%
Condemnation • 25%
Support • 25%
Neutral • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Ongoing legal proceedings • 25%
Exonerated • 25%
Convicted • 25%
Charges dropped • 25%
No action • 25%
Indictment • 25%
Acquittal • 25%
Plea deal • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
