Market
What impact will US and UK contact with HTS have on Syrian politics by end of 2025?
2
Antony Blinken•Jordan•United States•Syrian•HTS•Blinken•US•American•Austin Tice•UK•David Lammy•Britain•Syria
Resolution / Starting Odds
Strengthened HTS position • 25%
Weakened HTS position • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Other impact • 25%
Analysis from credible political analysts and news agencies
Story
US and UK Confirm Direct Contact with Syrian Rebel HTS, a Designated Terrorist Group
Dec 15, 2024, 02:19 AM
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking in Jordan, has confirmed that the United States has been in direct contact with the Syrian rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Blinken is the first US official to publicly acknowledge such contact with HTS, which is designated as a foreign terrorist organization by the US. He stated that the communications aim to discuss the case of missing American journalist Austin Tice and to stress US principles for recognizing a future Syrian government. Blinken declined to specify who within the US government is the primary contact with HTS. Meanwhile, UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy announced that Britain has also had diplomatic contact with HTS, signaling international efforts to engage with Syria's new leadership following the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad's government.
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Similar markets
Formal recognition of HTS • 25%
Continued diplomatic contact without recognition • 25%
Imposition of sanctions • 25%
Withdrawal of diplomatic engagement • 25%
Continued dialogue without agreement • 25%
Successful political transition agreement • 25%
HTS remains on terrorist list with no agreement • 25%
Partial agreement with limited recognition • 25%
Diplomatic talks collapse • 25%
Formal agreement reached • 25%
HTS removed from terrorist list • 25%
Diplomatic efforts cease • 25%
No change • 25%
Increased influence • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
Disbanded • 25%
No support • 25%
Full support • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Conditional support • 25%
Reduced engagement • 25%
Increased engagement • 25%
Maintained current stance • 25%
Other policy change • 25%
Continued isolation • 25%
Other diplomatic response • 25%
Sanctions or military action • 25%
Recognition by major powers • 25%
No formal recognition • 25%
Recognized by multiple Western countries • 25%
Recognized by regional countries only • 25%
Sanctions imposed by multiple countries • 25%
Recognition status unclear • 25%
Not recognized • 25%
Recognized by some countries • 25%
Widely recognized internationally • 25%