Market
Changes to Microsoft-OpenAI partnership terms by June 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Press releases or official statements from Microsoft or OpenAI
Story
FTC Warns of Microsoft's Cloud Computing Dominance Extending into AI Market with $13B OpenAI Investment
Jan 17, 2025, 07:51 PM
The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has raised antitrust concerns regarding Microsoft Corp.'s $13 billion investment in OpenAI, citing potential risks of Microsoft extending its dominance in cloud computing into the emerging artificial intelligence (AI) market. The FTC's report, which also scrutinizes partnerships between other major cloud service providers like Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., and AI developers such as Anthropic PBC, highlights the possibility of these partnerships impacting access to critical resources like computing power and engineering talent. The report suggests that such investments could increase switching costs for AI developers and provide cloud service providers with access to sensitive information, potentially undermining fair competition. FTC Chair Lina M. Khan emphasized the need for vigilance to prevent business strategies that could harm open markets and innovation.
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AGI clause remains, increased collaboration in other areas • 25%
AGI clause removed, increased Microsoft investment • 25%
AGI clause removed, no additional changes • 25%
No change in the partnership agreement • 25%
No change in share • 25%
Decreased share for Microsoft • 25%
Increased share for Microsoft • 25%
Revenue share discontinued • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Clause retained • 25%
Clause removed • 25%
No decision announced • 25%
Clause modified • 25%