Market
What action will the U.S. take following the designation of Mexican drug cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Economic sanctions • 25%
Military action • 25%
Increased border security • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Official government actions or credible news reports
Story
Trump Signs Order Designating Mexican Drug Cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations
Jan 21, 2025, 12:47 AM
U.S. President Donald Trump has signed an executive order in the Oval Office designating drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations. The new classification targets Mexican drug cartels and other criminal groups such as MS-13 and Tren de Aragua. Trump stated, 'They're killing our people. They're killing 250,000 to 300,000 American people a year.' The executive order allows the U.S. government to use expanded powers to combat these organizations, potentially including military action. Trump has instructed Secretary of State Marco Rubio to begin the process of officially designating the cartels, with recommendations expected within 14 days. The president also mentioned invoking the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to remove foreign gangs from the United States, and acknowledged that 'Mexico probably doesn't want that,' but emphasized the need to act.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No official response • 25%
Increased cooperation with the U.S. • 25%
Diplomatic protest • 25%
Other • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No official response • 25%
Strong opposition and diplomatic protest • 25%
Full cooperation • 25%
Conditional cooperation • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Jalisco New Generation Cartel • 25%
Sinaloa Cartel • 25%
None • 25%
Both • 25%
New diplomatic agreement • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No, none • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes, multiple cartels • 25%
Yes, one cartel • 25%
