Market
Primary outcome of Russia's involvement in Syria by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Stabilization of Syria • 25%
Creation of a power vacuum • 25%
Strengthening of Iranian influence • 25%
Other • 25%
Analysis from major international think tanks or reputable media outlets
Story
Putin: Russia Evacuated 4,000 Iranian Fighters from Syria via Khmeimim Base
Dec 19, 2024, 11:05 AM
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia has evacuated 4,000 Iranian fighters from Syria to Tehran via the Khmeimim air base at Tehran's request. He stated that after the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime, government forces and pro-Iranian units withdrew without a fight, with some units moving to Lebanon and Iraq. Putin also mentioned that Aleppo was captured by 350 opposition fighters while 30,000 government troops and pro-Iranian units retreated. He emphasized that Russia has achieved its goals in Syria by preventing the creation of a terrorist enclave and does not consider the developments as a defeat.
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Complete withdrawal • 25%
Reinforcement • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Increased Rebel Control • 25%
International Intervention • 25%
Increased Russian Control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Political agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Humanitarian Aid • 25%
Political Stability • 25%
Economic Influence • 25%
Security of Bases • 25%
Securing military bases • 25%
Countering Israeli airstrikes • 25%
Other strategic focus • 25%
Supporting Syrian government forces • 25%
Maintained presence • 25%
Reduced presence • 25%
Increased presence • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Bases reduced • 25%
Bases completely withdrawn • 25%
Bases expanded • 25%
Bases maintained at current levels • 25%
Destabilizing influence • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Other • 25%
Stabilizing influence • 25%
No change in military presence • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Decreased military presence • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Decrease in military presence • 25%
Increase in military presence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Maintain presence at both bases • 25%
Other • 25%
Withdraw from both bases • 25%
Maintain presence at one base • 25%